WTC Finals Qualification Scenario after SL-NZ and Ind-Ban series

By Rohit - October 1, 2024
Last updated on Oct 02, 2024 06:14 AM
WTC Finals Qualification Scenario after SL-NZ and Ind-Ban series

WTC 2023-25 Points Table: India, NZ, SL Rankings; Top Batters & Bowlers

The World Test Championship (WTC) 2023-25 cycle has reached a crucial phase with significant movements in the points table after the recently concluded series between Sri Lanka and New Zealand and India and Bangladesh. With each team eyeing a spot in the WTC 2025 final, the path to qualification is becoming clearer—but also more difficult for some teams. This article will give you a detailed look at the current rankings, team standings, and what each team needs to do to qualify for the final, along with updated WTC final qualification chances.

WTC 2023-25 points table

POINTS TABLE - World Test Championship 2023-2025

#TeamPlayedWonLostTieNRPCTPointsRecent Forms
1India11821074.2498
WWWWW
2Australia12831062.590
WWLWW
3Sri Lanka9540055.5660
LLWWW
4England16871042.1981
WWWWL
5South Africa6231038.8928
LLLDW
6New Zealand8350037.536
WLLLL
7Bangladesh8350034.3833
LWWLL
8Pakistan7250019.516
LLLLL
9West Indies9162018.5220
LLLDL
Recent Forms: W = Won, L = Lost, T = Tie, D = Draw, NR = No Result

India’s Scenario for WTC 2025 Final Qualification

Team India, led by Rohit Sharma, continues to dominate the WTC points table with an impressive 81% points, making them strong contenders for a third consecutive WTC final. After their recent series win over Bangladesh, India only needs to win three out of their remaining eight Test matches to secure their spot in the final at Lord’s.

India’s Remaining Matches in WTC 2023-25

  • India vs New Zealand – 3 Matches (Home)
  • India vs Australia – 5 Matches (Away)

With a solid home advantage against New Zealand and the upcoming away series in Australia, India is poised to continue their dominance. Their qualification chances for the WTC 2025 final are currently at 81%, and they are well on track to finish in the top two.

Wins required from 8 matches: 3

Australia’s Scenario for WTC 2025 Final Qualification

Australia also sits comfortably with 81% points on the WTC points table, alongside India. The Aussies have a slightly more challenging road ahead, as they need to win four out of their remaining seven Test matches. Their five-match series against India will be the deciding factor, with Australia keen to finally break their home series drought against India.

Australia’s Remaining Matches in WTC 2023-25

  • Australia vs India – 5 Matches (Home)
  • Australia vs Sri Lanka – 2 Matches (Away)

Australia's qualification chances stand at 81%, and they are likely to maintain their place in the top two if they can perform well against India and Sri Lanka.

Wins required from 7 matches: 4

Sri Lanka’s Scenario for WTC 2025 Final Qualification

Sri Lanka faces a steep climb despite some strong performances, most notably the win over New Zealand. However, with a current standing of just 9% chance of qualification, they will need to win almost every match from here to keep their hopes alive. Sri Lanka’s main strength has been their home advantage, but tough away fixtures await.

Sri Lanka’s Remaining Matches in WTC 2023-25

  • Sri Lanka vs South Africa – 2 Matches (Away)
  • Sri Lanka vs Australia – 2 Matches (Home)

Their chances of qualification are slim, especially with South Africa and Australia posing major challenges. Sri Lanka will need to win three out of their four remaining matches to have any hope.

Wins required from 4 matches: 3

WTC qualification chances: 9%

New Zealand’s Scenario for WTC 2025 Final Qualification

New Zealand's path to the WTC 2025 final has become increasingly difficult after suffering back-to-back losses. They now have just 0.5% chance of qualifying, making their road to the final almost impossible. The Black Caps need to win all six of their remaining matches.

New Zealand’s Remaining Matches in WTC 2023-25

  • New Zealand vs India – 3 Matches (Away)
  • New Zealand vs England – 3 Matches (Home)

New Zealand needs to bring their best performance against tough opponents like India and England. While the odds are stacked against them, their performances in home conditions could give them a slight advantage.

Wins required from 6 matches: 6

WTC qualification chances: 0.5%

South Africa’s Scenario for WTC 2025 Final Qualification

South Africa is still in the running with a 28% chance of making the WTC final. With some favorable home fixtures ahead, the Proteas will need to be almost perfect to make it to Lord's. They need to win five of their six remaining Test matches.

South Africa’s Remaining Matches in WTC 2023-25

  • South Africa vs Bangladesh – 2 Matches (Away)
  • South Africa vs Sri Lanka – 2 Matches (Home)
  • South Africa vs Pakistan – 2 Matches (Home)

South Africa’s qualification scenario is a bit tougher because they need to overshoot 60% due to their lack of head-to-head fixtures against either India or Australia. This makes their remaining matches critical.

Wins required from 6 matches: 5

WTC qualification chances: 28%

England’s Scenario for WTC 2025 Final Qualification

England's WTC 2025 final chances have dwindled to a mere 1%, making it highly unlikely that the Three Lions will qualify. They need to win all six of their remaining matches, including away series against Pakistan and New Zealand.

England’s Remaining Matches in WTC 2023-25

  • England vs Pakistan – 3 Matches (Away)
  • England vs New Zealand – 3 Matches (Away)

Given the tough conditions of playing away from home, especially in Pakistan and New Zealand, England’s hopes are hanging by a thread.

Wins required from 6 matches: 6

WTC qualification chances: 1%

Bangladesh’s Scenario for WTC 2025 Final Qualification

Bangladesh has seen their WTC 2025 final dreams nearly disappear after suffering a clean sweep at the hands of India. With only four matches remaining, their qualification chances are now at just 0.1%.

Bangladesh’s Remaining Matches in WTC 2023-25

  • Bangladesh vs South Africa – 2 Matches (Home)
  • Bangladesh vs West Indies – 2 Matches (Away)

For Bangladesh to have any chance at qualification, they must win all four of their remaining matches—a difficult task given their recent form.

Wins required from 6 matches: 5

WTC qualification chances: 0.1%

Pakistan’s Scenario for WTC 2025 Final Qualification

Pakistan finds itself in a precarious position with a slim 0.02% chance of making the WTC 2025 final. To qualify, they must win all seven of their remaining matches, a nearly impossible feat given the current form of their team and the strength of their upcoming opponents.

Pakistan’s Remaining Matches in WTC 2023-25

  • Pakistan vs England – 3 Matches (Home)
  • Pakistan vs South Africa – 2 Matches (Away)
  • Pakistan vs West Indies – 2 Matches (Home)

The road ahead for Pakistan is incredibly tough, and their chances of qualifying are extremely slim unless they pull off a series of miracles.

Wins required from 7 matches: 7

WTC qualification chances: 0.02%

WTC Finals Qualification Cutoff

For most teams, the cutoff for WTC final qualification is set at 58.5%. However, teams like South Africa, who don’t have matches against either India or Australia, need to achieve more than 60% to keep themselves in contention for the final. This makes their upcoming matches even more critical as they try to overshoot the cutoff percentage.

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