Asia Cup 2025: Can Afghanistan still qualify for the Super 4? See the equation

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Can Afghanistan still qualify for the Super 4? : Group B of the Asia Cup 2025 is currently at a critical juncture. Afghanistan, who began their campaign with a resounding victory against Hong Kong, are now in a do-or-die situation after a narrow defeat to Bangladesh.

Their final group-stage match against Sri Lanka in Abu Dhabi tomorrow, September 18, will determine the fate of not only Afghanistan but also Bangladesh. The outcome of this match will determine which team will advance to the Super 4.

Current State of Group B

Afghanistan started the tournament with a strong 94-run win against Hong Kong. This victory earned them two points and significantly improved their net run rate (NRR) to 2.150.

However, in their second match against Bangladesh, chasing 155, the Rashid Khan-led team fell just 8 runs short of the target. Azmatullah Umarzai raised some hopes with a 30-run knock, but excellent bowling from Mustafizur Rahman and Taskin Ahmed gave Bangladesh a thrilling 8-run victory.

After this defeat, Afghanistan has just two points from two matches. Bangladesh, on the other hand, has won two of its matches to earn four points. Hong Kong has already been eliminated from the tournament. Now, there is a tough competition between Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh for the two spots in the Super 4.

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Afghanistan's qualification equation for the Super 4

Equation 1: If Sri Lanka wins

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If Sri Lanka defeats Afghanistan by any margin, it will top the group with six points. Bangladesh will remain in second place with four points, despite its poor net run rate. In this scenario, Afghanistan will be eliminated from the tournament with just two points.

Equation 2: If Afghanistan wins

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If Afghanistan defeats Sri Lanka, an interesting situation will arise in the group. All three teams (Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh) will be tied on 4 points each. In such a situation, net run rate (NRR) will be the deciding factor.

Afghanistan already has the best net run rate. A win against Sri Lanka, no matter by what margin, will further strengthen their net run rate. With this victory, Afghanistan's place in the Super 4 is almost certain.

In short, the only way for Afghanistan to qualify for the Super 4 is to defeat Sri Lanka. This match is more than just a win or loss; it will decide their journey to the Asia Cup 2025.

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