By Guest - May 09, 2025 09:52 PM
The Western Conference Semifinals are now tied 1-1 as the Golden State Warriors and Minnesota Timberwolves trade blows in a surprisingly balanced series. With Stephen Curry sidelined and Minnesota entering as the betting favorite, many expected a lopsided start. Yet, the Warriors stunned the Timberwolves in Game 1 before getting overpowered in Game 2.
As the action shifts to San Francisco for Game 3 on Saturday night, bettors and analysts alike are reassessing expectations in what has become a chess match of depth, adjustments, and matchup exploitation.
Minnesota looked every bit the favorite in Game 2, dominating a Curry-less Warriors squad with a wire-to-wire win. That bounce-back performance reaffirmed their regular-season momentum and reminded skeptics why the Timberwolves entered as series favorites.
However, Game 1 served as a reminder that Golden State’s veteran core—despite fatigue and injuries—remains capable of stealing games on the road. With the series now even, the perceived advantages of rest and home court are being tested by the Warriors’ adaptability and playoff poise.
This significant difference in rest time and the Timberwolves' home-court advantage are often cited as key factors favoring Minnesota in the series. Minnesota’s recent form has also influenced NBA Finals bets, with some sportsbooks shortening the team’s odds to reach the championship round.
However, a note of caution is advised; some analysis suggests the Wolves' impressive late-season run occurred against significantly weaker competition.
A major narrative shift in the first round involved the playoff performances of Minnesota's frontcourt players, Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert. Both players showed significant improvement from previous postseason struggles.
Randle averaged 22.6 points per game against the Lakers on efficient shooting splits of 48.1% from the field, 39.3% from three-point range, and 83.9% from the free-throw line against the Lakers. Gobert also had a dominant performance in the series-clinching Game 5, recording 27 points and 24 rebounds.
While their first-round success is notable, the Lakers presented a frontcourt that some viewed as limited, with only two centers playing rotation minutes for short periods.
Julius Randle averaged 22.6 points, 5.2 rebounds, 4.4 assists, and 2.2 three-pointers per game in the first round, displaying a marked improvement over his career playoff averages of 17.1 points per game on just 34.4% field goal shooting in prior postseasons.
His efficiency, including shooting 39.3% from deep, against the Lakers demonstrated a newfound confidence and effectiveness, making him a threat the Warriors will need to address.
Rudy Gobert anchors the Timberwolves' defense, which is built around funneling drives toward an elite rim protector inside. While his statistical impact fluctuated early in the Lakers series, culminating in a massive Game 5, his presence forces opponents to reconsider attacking the paint. The sources note that the Lakers' lack of substantial frontcourt depth made them a particularly easy matchup for Minnesota's bigs.
Despite facing significant circumstantial disadvantages, the Warriors possess offensive characteristics that could pose problems for Minnesota's defense. While the Timberwolves boast an exceptional defense, they exhibit a specific weakness that aligns directly with a Golden State offensive strength. Specifically, the Timberwolves struggled significantly defending off-ball screens this season, allowing 1.04 points per possession on shots following this action, which was the sixth-worst rate in the league.
The Warriors' offense, centered around constant movement and off-ball screens, thrives on exploiting defenses vulnerable to these actions. Golden State averaged a league-high 8.7 shots per game generated from off-ball screens, more than double the volume of the Lakers in the regular season.
This offensive staple allows the Warriors to generate open looks away from the primary ball-handler and could be a key area for them to attack Minnesota.
In their regular-season matchups against the Timberwolves, the Warriors averaged 35.8 three-point attempts per game classified as open (4-6 feet of space) or wide open (6+ feet of space).
This contrasts with the 30.2 such attempts per game they managed against the Rockets in the first round. Players like Stephen Curry and Buddy Hield were particularly effective against Minnesota in the regular season, suggesting the Warriors may find it easier to create clean looks for their best shooters than they did against Houston.
Game 3 sees the Timberwolves favored by 5.5 points on the road, a reflection of their deeper roster and Curry’s continued absence. Despite that, Golden State has shown it can cover spreads even without their star, especially at home. The over/under sits at 201.5, with recent trends favoring the over in Timberwolves road games.
With the series tied and momentum up for grabs, Game 3 could tilt the balance. The Warriors must find offense without their engine, while the Timberwolves look to prove their Game 2 dominance wasn’t a fluke.
Minnesota’s size and bench production remain advantages—but Golden State’s ability to adapt, control tempo, and leverage Chase Center’s energy could prove decisive. Bettors should brace for a pivotal showdown, where the underdog narrative might once again be rewritten.
Disclaimer: The content provided on this website is for informational and educational purposes only. We do not promote, endorse, or encourage any form of illegal betting or gambling. Readers are advised to check the legal status of betting and gambling in their respective jurisdictions before engaging in any activities. It may be legal in certain regions, but it is the your responsibility to ensure compliance with local laws. We are not liable for any legal or financial consequences arising from the use of this information.
Give Your Feedback