The debate over leadership in Karnataka has resurfaced once again, with renewed attention on the power-sharing understanding that was reportedly crafted after the Congress’ unexpected victory in the 2023 Assembly election. According to that arrangement, Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and his deputy DK Shivakumar were to divide the five-year tenure equally, each serving two and a half years. That midpoint has now passed, and the transition question has returned to the forefront of state politics.
The latest trigger was a ‘power breakfast’ meeting between Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar. Although the meeting might have appeared routine, it carried unmistakable political weight. Their conversation, held over idli, country-style chicken curry, and coffee, revolved around their ongoing tussle for the top post. While both leaders framed the discussion as preparation for the upcoming Assembly session in Belagavi, the political subtext was evident and unavoidable.
In a significant departure from his earlier firmness, Siddaramaiah hinted for the first time that he may step aside if the Congress high command instructs him to do so. He made it clear that any decision to alter the leadership structure would have to come from the central leadership — Rahul Gandhi, Sonia Gandhi, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, and party president Mallikarjun Kharge. This remark has intensified speculation about an imminent call from Delhi, where both leaders are expected to be summoned for discussions.
The Delhi Meeting and Party-Level Deliberations
Sources have revealed that both Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar are likely to travel to Delhi on December 8, once the legislative business in Belagavi concludes for the day. While the official agenda for the trip is to highlight issues related to Karnataka farmers and concerns over water management, the real purpose is widely understood: to break the prolonged deadlock over the chief ministerial handover.
Before their visit, both leaders are slated to share a stage at an event in Mangaluru alongside senior Congress general secretary KC Venugopal. Party insiders believe this appearance is intended to project unity ahead of crucial internal talks. A face-to-face meeting with Rahul Gandhi and Kharge is considered essential for outlining any transition framework.
According to internal feedback, Rahul Gandhi remains unconvinced about executing a mid-term switch, despite the earlier pact. His stance complicates DK Shivakumar’s push for the chair, especially as his supporters have been urging immediate action. The differing positions within the party’s top leadership have made the situation more delicate, prolonging uncertainty around the timeline of any leadership change.
Breakfast Diplomacy and the Bid to Maintain Stability
The Tuesday breakfast meeting marked the second such engagement between the two leaders within three days. The Congress has been working overtime to diffuse tensions, improve coordination between the camps, and shift focus toward the 2028 election. In an effort to signal harmony, the party released another photograph of the two leaders seated together, even as discussions behind closed doors remain complex and unresolved.
DK Shivakumar posted on X that the meeting underscored their shared commitment to governance and development under the Congress’ larger vision. He also dismissed suggestions of internal conflict as media-generated narratives, reiterating that the Congress speaks in “one voice.” Despite these public assurances, party sources maintain that the question of succession dominated recent interactions.
The earlier meeting on Saturday at the Chief Minister’s residence, featuring idli, upma, and kesari, reportedly involved detailed discussions on the transition timeline. DK Shivakumar and his supporters prefer a near-term handover, ideally by April 2026. Siddaramaiah’s camp, however, is keen on completing the full term and leveraging his influence among the Ahinda voter base heading into the next election cycle.
The Political Chessboard: Calculations Behind the Handover
One of Siddaramaiah’s arguments is that if he remains Chief Minister until the end of the term, he can strategically back DK Shivakumar in the 2028 election, creating a formidable coalition of the Ahinda vote base and the Vokkaliga community that traditionally supports Shivakumar. Such an alignment could strengthen Congress’ chances in a crucial state where the party already faces the challenge of preserving its mandate.
Shivakumar’s supporters, on the other hand, stress that delaying the transition undermines the commitment that was made at the time of government formation. They believe the party must honor its word to retain credibility and prevent factional unrest. This view gained momentum last month when several Congress MLAs traveled to Delhi to press Mallikarjun Kharge to intervene.
Kharge, who is from Karnataka, now appears to have taken a firmer stance. According to sources, he reminded party leaders that the power-sharing agreement was finalized in his presence and that reneging on it could harm the party’s reputation both within and outside the state. This is reportedly the second time he has insisted that the matter be settled swiftly, having earlier pushed for a resolution before the Parliament’s Winter Session.
Opposition Reaction and Legislative Dynamics
The BJP has adopted a measured approach, carefully observing the unfolding situation. There has been speculation that the opposition may move a no-confidence motion against the Siddaramaiah government, but analysts point out that the BJP’s numbers in the Assembly are insufficient to threaten the ruling party at this point. For now, the opposition seems content to let the Congress’ internal friction play out publicly.
The instability within the Congress government offers the BJP a political advantage without requiring active intervention. The perception of internal conflict could undermine the ruling party’s larger narrative of stability and governance, especially as the 2028 election begins to loom on the horizon. However, without numerical strength on its side, the BJP has limited leverage beyond political messaging.
For the Congress, the challenge lies in protecting its government while managing personal ambitions within its leadership ranks. Karnataka is one of only three states where the party governs independently, without coalition partners. Any prolonged conflict in such a strategically important state could weaken the party’s national standing and disrupt its plans for future electoral campaigns.
The 2.5-Year Power-Sharing Pact: A Sticking Point
The core of the entire dispute remains the alleged pact formed after the 2023 elections: that Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar would share the chief ministerial tenure equally. With half the term already gone, the lack of movement toward a handover has intensified frustration among those who supported the original deal.
Party insiders claim that pressure has been mounting on Siddaramaiah to honor the agreement, especially after DK Shivakumar made veiled references to promises and commitments during public interactions. Many within the Congress believe that adhering to such internal agreements is important not only for Karnataka’s governance but also for maintaining internal discipline and trust.
Yet, realpolitik within the party makes the situation more complex. With Siddaramaiah still enjoying considerable support, especially among backward classes, and DK Shivakumar commanding immense influence among Vokkaligas, the Congress faces the delicate task of balancing these two power centers without disrupting governance.
Looking Ahead: The High Command’s Final Decision
The next steps will hinge almost entirely on what the Congress high command decides when Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar meet them in Delhi. The outcome of those discussions will determine whether Karnataka sees a mid-term leadership transition or whether Siddaramaiah continues in the top job until the 2028 election. For now, both leaders have publicly pledged to accept whatever direction comes from Delhi.
The wider political community will be watching closely as this leadership question reaches its most critical phase. With significant implications for Karnataka’s governance and Congress’ political strategy, the high command’s decision could shape the trajectory of the state’s politics for years to come.
Until then, the breakfast diplomacy between the Chief Minister and his deputy offers only a glimpse into a much larger and unresolved political puzzle — one that has deep roots, sharp tensions, and the potential to reshape Karnataka’s political landscape once again.
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About the Author:
Harshit Raj
