The Indian stock market opened on a cautious note Thursday, with Gift Nifty trading around 25,955, showing a discount of nearly 30 points from the previous close of Nifty futures. This signals a tentative start for the domestic indices after a sharp rally the previous day. Investors are digesting mixed global cues, with Asian markets trading mostly higher and the US stock market ending the previous session with a mixed trend, highlighted by Dow Jones hitting a record-high close for the second consecutive day.
Wednesday’s session saw the Indian stock market extend its rally for the third consecutive day. The Sensex surged 595.19 points, or 0.71%, to close at 84,466.51, while Nifty 50 settled 180.85 points, or 0.70%, higher at 25,875.80. Analysts believe that ongoing earnings season, progress in the India–US trade talks, and improving global cues are likely to maintain positive sentiment in the markets. According to Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, “We expect markets to maintain their positive bias, supported by constructive economic developments and global trends.”
Global markets have shown a mixed trend overnight. Asian markets, including Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Topix, recorded gains, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng futures indicated a lower opening. The South Korean market is set to open later today. Meanwhile, the US stock market ended mixed, with Dow Jones posting another record-high close at 48,254.82, S&P 500 rising slightly to 6,850.92, and Nasdaq closing 0.26% lower at 23,406.46. These mixed cues are influencing domestic market sentiment, creating cautious trading conditions.
Gift Nifty Today: Market Sentiment
Gift Nifty’s trading around 25,955 points suggests a modest correction from the previous Nifty futures close. Investors are closely monitoring global and domestic cues, as well as overnight developments, to gauge market direction. The discount in Gift Nifty points to a weak start for the day, though analysts believe the indices could gain momentum once market participants absorb overnight news and domestic policy developments.
Financial experts suggest that trading activity will remain sensitive to sectoral performances, including banking, IT, and energy stocks. The ongoing earnings season and corporate updates will play a crucial role in shaping short-term market movements, with investor focus split between global trends and domestic economic indicators.
US Government Shutdown and Its Impact
Global developments, including the recent US government shutdown, continue to affect investor sentiment. The House of Representatives recently passed a short-term funding bill, ending the longest shutdown in US history. This move was achieved through a close vote of 222-209, with the Senate having already approved the measure. Market analysts believe that the resolution of the shutdown could reduce uncertainty in global markets, potentially benefiting Indian investors and foreign portfolio inflows.
US Federal Reserve updates also remain in focus. Boston Fed President Susan Collins noted a “relatively high bar” for additional monetary easing due to concerns over elevated inflation. Her comments indicate caution in adjusting monetary policy unless there is a significant deterioration in the labor market. This cautious stance has implications for global liquidity flows and risk appetite, influencing emerging markets including India.
India CPI Inflation and Economic Indicators
Domestic macroeconomic data continues to support market optimism. India’s retail inflation plunged to a record low of 0.25% in October 2025, compared to 1.44% in September, and a 6.21% CPI in October 2024. This significant drop aligns closely with the median estimate of 0.3% by market economists and may ease concerns about cost pressures for consumers and businesses. Lower inflation is expected to provide the Reserve Bank of India with greater flexibility in policy decisions, potentially boosting investor confidence.
Additionally, the Union Cabinet approved the Credit Guarantee Scheme for Exporters (CGSE), providing 100% credit guarantee coverage of up to ₹20,000 crore to eligible exporters, including MSMEs. This initiative is expected to support domestic businesses and export growth, further strengthening market sentiment.
Commodity Markets: Gold and Crude Oil Trends
Global commodity markets are also influencing investor behavior. Gold prices have risen on expectations of possible easing by the US Federal Reserve, increasing demand for safe-haven assets. Gold surged 1.7% to $4,197.43 per ounce, reflecting investor caution amid global economic uncertainty.
Crude oil prices extended their recent decline due to oversupply concerns. Brent crude fell 0.46% to $62.42 a barrel, while WTI crude futures dropped 0.58% to $58.18 per barrel, after a significant 4% decline in the previous session. Energy sector investors are closely monitoring these movements, as oil price fluctuations can influence domestic inflation and sectoral performance in the stock market.
Key Stocks and Market Outlook
Investors are advised to track stocks likely to benefit from positive earnings and policy support. Previous sessions have seen notable rallies in select sectors, including technology, finance, and infrastructure. Experts recommend focusing on fundamentally strong companies that are expected to perform well despite global volatility.
Global and domestic cues, including US market movements, inflation trends, and government policy updates, are expected to guide market sentiment. Analysts suggest that while short-term volatility may continue, the overall positive bias supported by earnings and policy measures could sustain market momentum.
Conclusion: Market Summary and Investor Guidance
In summary, the Indian stock market is navigating mixed global and domestic cues, with Gift Nifty indicating a cautious start. Key factors influencing the market include US government shutdown developments, Federal Reserve policy signals, domestic inflation trends, and policy measures supporting exporters and MSMEs. Investors are advised to remain alert, monitor market trends, and consider both short-term and long-term opportunities based on sectoral performance and economic indicators.
While the market faces potential volatility, ongoing earnings, constructive policy announcements, and global market trends provide avenues for informed investment decisions. Investors should keep an eye on key indices, commodities, and sectoral updates to navigate the evolving market landscape effectively.
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About the Author:
Harshit Raj
