The 2025 Bihar assembly elections have drawn unprecedented attention as voters across the state made their choice in a record-breaking turnout. Exit polls released on Tuesday evening indicate a strong showing for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the BJP-JD(U) alliance. Early projections suggest that the NDA may secure at least 140 seats, though some exit poll results are still pending. These projections are based on extensive surveys conducted across numerous constituencies, reflecting voter sentiment immediately after they cast their ballots.
As the second and final phase of polling concluded with a historic turnout of 68.76 percent, surpassing the first phase’s 65.08 percent, political analysts are closely monitoring exit poll results to predict the possible outcome of this high-stakes election. Several leading pollsters, including Matrize, P-Marq, and Dainik Bhaskar, have already released projections showing a decisive advantage for the NDA, while others, like People's Pulse, People's Insight, JVC, and Polstrat, confirm a majority for the BJP-JD(U) alliance. However, certain key projections from Axis My India, C-Voter, and Today's Chanakya are yet to be announced.
Political enthusiasts and voters are following live updates as the state braces for potential shifts in its political landscape. Analysts emphasize that while exit polls provide an early snapshot of voting trends, the actual results may differ when counting concludes, making every projection an indicator rather than a certainty.
Major Exit Poll Projections
Several pollsters have released their predictions, projecting a strong performance for the NDA. Dainik Bhaskar estimates 145-160 seats for the NDA, 73-91 for the Mahagathbandhan, and 0-3 for the Jan Suraaj. Matrize forecasts 147-167 seats for the NDA, 70-90 for the Mahagathbandhan, and 0-2 for the Jan Suraaj. People's Pulse predicts 133-159 seats for the NDA, 75-101 for the Mahagathbandhan, and 0-5 for Jan Suraaj.
These projections reflect meticulous surveys conducted by the pollsters, who interviewed voters leaving polling stations across Bihar. The results indicate a competitive edge for the NDA while showing strong regional variations in voter preference that could influence the final outcome.
Exit Poll Methodology and Limitations
Exit polls are based on interviews with a sample of voters across multiple constituencies. Pollsters collect information on voter choices immediately after ballots are cast, aiming to predict overall trends and seat distributions. Despite their analytical rigor, exit polls are not always accurate and can deviate from the official election results due to sampling limitations, late voter behavior, or unforeseen political dynamics.
Election survey agencies use a combination of statistical modeling, sample stratification, and demographic analysis to project outcomes. These methods help identify potential winners and estimate the strength of alliances such as the NDA and Mahagathbandhan, though unexpected voter shifts can still occur during the actual counting process.
Exit Polls Yet to Be Released
While most projections were released from Tuesday evening onwards, a few key pollsters have scheduled their announcements for Wednesday, November 12. Axis My India confirmed on X that their exit poll would be released from 5:30 pm onwards, while Today's Chanakya plans a phased release with caste analysis at 7 pm, vote projection at 7:10 pm, and seat projection at 7:20 pm. C-Voter has also indicated that their predictions will likely be released on Wednesday.
These pending results are eagerly awaited by political analysts, party strategists, and the general public, as they could provide additional clarity on the final distribution of seats and the prospects for NDA and Mahagathbandhan alliances.
Historic Voter Turnout and Electoral Significance
The Bihar 2025 elections witnessed a record turnout, with 68.76 percent of voters participating in the second phase, surpassing the first phase’s 65.08 percent. This historic engagement reflects the electorate's high interest in shaping the state’s political future and underscores the significance of exit polls as a gauge of voter sentiment.
Analysts note that strong voter participation may influence the accuracy of exit polls, as higher turnout can sometimes shift projected outcomes. The engagement also highlights the importance of regional and caste-based voting patterns, which remain crucial in determining seat allocation and overall election results.
Conclusion
As Bihar waits for the final results, exit polls provide an early insight into potential trends and indicate a likely advantage for the NDA. While projections from pollsters such as Matrize, Dainik Bhaskar, P-Marq, and People's Pulse suggest a decisive performance, the final outcome will only be confirmed after vote counting concludes. Citizens, political analysts, and party leaders continue to follow updates closely, reflecting the dynamic and high-stakes nature of the Bihar 2025 assembly elections.
Although exit polls are an important tool for understanding voter behavior and predicting electoral trends, their limitations must be acknowledged. The actual election results can still differ, making it essential to await the official announcement for a definitive conclusion to this historic electoral exercise.
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About the Author:
Harshit Raj
