RBI MPC Meet: Rate at 5.25%, Q1 growth seen at 6.9%

By Afiur
February 09, 2026

Policy Context

This was the first policy decision of 2026 and came soon after India signed trade pacts with the European Union and the United States in recent weeks.

Rate Unchanged

The Reserve Bank of India kept the policy repo rate steady at 5.25%, with Governor Sanjay Malhotra saying the MPC chose to maintain status quo.

Neutral Stance

The Monetary Policy Committee retained a neutral stance, keeping room to respond to incoming data while balancing price stability and growth needs.

Growth View

The Governor said the Indian economy remains resilient, with domestic growth conditions holding up despite global uncertainties and shifting trade patterns.

Inflation Framework

Monetary policy decisions ahead will rely on inflation data from a revised statistical series, marking a change in how price trends are assessed.

Production Signals

Improving corporate performance and continued momentum in the informal sector are expected to support manufacturing activity in the coming quarters.

Demand Pattern

Rural demand remains steady, while urban consumption is expected to strengthen further, supporting overall domestic demand in the economy.

Trade Support

The recently concluded India–EU trade pact and a proposed India–US deal are seen aiding export momentum and strengthening the external sector outlook.

Growth Forecasts

The RBI raised GDP growth projections to 6.9% for Q1 and 7% for Q2 of the next fiscal year, citing improving economic activity.

Inflation Path

Inflation is projected at 2.1% for the current fiscal year, with estimates of 4% in Q1 FY27 and 4.2% in Q2, pointing to gradual firming.

Liquidity & Markets

Forex reserves stood at $723.8 bn in January; CAD is seen moderate. Liquidity averaged ₹75,000 crore, yields hardened, and norms eased for REIT lending and NBFC branches.

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