How Donald Trump turned unpredictability into a tool of diplomacy

By Afiur
January 25, 2026

Madmen of modern diplomacy describes leaders who use unpredictability as leverage, treating instability and surprise as instruments of international power rather than risks.Central Idea

Donald Trump is presented as a prominent example, having consciously converted personal unpredictability into a diplomatic tactic during his time in global leadership.Trump Factor

Trump’s conduct has revived focus on the Madman Theory, an approach suggesting adversaries can be pressured by believing a leader is capable of extreme actions.Theory Revival

Unpredictability is framed not as disorder but as a calculated tool, reshaping how influence is exerted in negotiations, conflicts, and diplomatic signalling.Power Tool

This diplomatic style is marked by decisions driven by mood changes, grievances, or impulse, rather than structured planning or consistent policy frameworks.Decision Style

Madman diplomacy departs from long-held international norms, replacing predictability and convention with personal behaviour as a strategic variable.Norm Break

Leadership actions under this model often reflect emotional responses, highlighting how personal temperament can directly shape state-level decisions.Emotional Drivers

The approach contrasts with diplomacy rooted in long-term strategy, emphasising short-term reactions over carefully sequenced geopolitical planning.Strategic Absence

By noting earlier examples, the concept is positioned as recurring in history rather than unique, suggesting cyclical returns during periods of tension.Continuity Claim

Although Trump is cited as a recent practitioner, he’s not the first leader to employ madman-style diplomatic behaviour, with earlier examples including Richard Nixon, Kim Jong-un and Muammar Gaddafi.

Overall, madman diplomacy is framed as a leadership lens where perceived irrationality becomes intentional, altering how power and deterrence function globally.Defining Lens

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